Do rapidly climbing nicotine pouch sales represent a threat to the UK vape market? This is a key question for the sector right now, but when we looked at it in August, the consensus seemed to be: no, or at least not yet. Our own data backs that up, and so do some numbers from other sources.
For example, data from Haypp Group suggests that around 60% of UK pouch users moved directly to the category from smoking conventional cigarettes.
Of the remaining 40% of pouch users, according to Haypp roughly 20% are dual users of vaping and pouch products. And the final 20% are either former users of other reduced-risk products — including e-cigarettes — or the nicotine-naive (people who have not used nicotine at all before).
What that last number would suggest is that at most, 20% of pouch users are consumers who have stopped vaping in order to take up pouch.
Of course, that is not necessarily the whole story. Some of the dual vape/pouch users might abandon vaping to solely use pouches, though others could go in the opposite direction.
It could also be that some of those who went straight from combustible cigarettes to pouches would have gone to vaping if pouches did not exist, and thus do represent a “loss” to the vape market.
But some of them might have been deterred from vaping by the widespread public misconception that it can be harmful to health and by a desire to avoid any form of inhalation, meaning they would not have taken up vaping anyway.
So far, the industry seems fairly sanguine. The Independent British Vape Trade Association (IBVTA) says that “there is little evidence of material switching”, while the Association of Convenience Stores (ACS) says pouches are “a rising category but still quite niche”.
The rapid upward trajectory of pouch sales is expected to continue, though, at least for the remainder of this decade.
At ECigIntelligence and our sister publication TobaccoIntelligence, we estimate the UK pouch market as having been worth a little over $200m in 2023 ( early 60% up on 2022) and see it growing to just over $450m by 2027. By comparison, our 2023 figure for the UK vaping market is about $2bn.
Our graphic this month comes from research conducted by TobaccoIntelligence back in 2022.
While the average usage time for pouch consumers has no doubt increased since then (because pouches have been around longer), what’s really interesting here is the pattern of multiple product use. Pouch users are much more likely to also vape than vice-versa.
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